June 15, 2024
The many friends and colleagues reading this newsletter will know that we have been working a few thousands of hours to build 230.000 lines of code to be able to easily pull key economic and market data from multiple sources, transform it, interpret it to come out with a credible, cheap, fast, reliable investment engine to generate superior, reliable returns in any market conditions.
We are trying to build basically the holy grail of capital markets leveraging tech, AI and human experience. And now we finally have full visibility on what our engine is capable to do.
Performance
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Period of current analysis: 31/12/2013 to 31/05/2024 (the past 10yrs)
=> Market of reference*: +72.7%
=> Pantar.ai fund: +114.9% (+42.2% vs market)
=> Pantar.ai fund with bitcoin (fixed, max 2%)**: +232.1%
=> Pantar.ai fund with bitcoin (dynamic, max 2%): +290.4%
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Yes, you see what I see!!!
We need to check the numbers, fine tune sensitivities, verify volatilites and the above numbers will change in the upcoming weeks. But it is not a bad starting point, is it?
Insights
We have created genuine out-performance with a balanced portfolio that can attack and defend using mainstream assets (US/EU stocks and bonds before touching the bitcoin). We even outperform the bitcoin with momentum trading over a credible period of 10 years.
How?
The engine understands where we are in the market cycle on a daily basis and then subsequently adjusts portfolio allocations with wise timing. This is a style called "adaptive asset allocation" (a much more contemporary take
on investing vs the Modern Portfolio theory of the 1960s that everyone
is still using).
Detailed notes
=>market of reference:
*50% MSCI ACWI (global equities), 25% US Treasuries, 25% EU government bonds
=> ** if we add the bitcoin (max: 2%), performance goes up. Riiiight.....well, it is not a big deal and anyone could do that. We know the bitcoin is highly volatile but has grown in value by 83x in 10 years. Of course by adding it to a portfolio, long term performance goes up. No added value here. But the point is another one....
...because once we apply our dynamic trend-following strategy to the bitcoin, we are able to ride the wild cryptocurrency by selling before the bitcoin periodically tanks and buying only up-trends, beating even the same bitcoin!!!
Next steps
=> PITCH to institutional investors and HNWIs
prepare pitch documents to show how the engine/fund behaves over time to convince institutional investors (and friend HNWIs) to give us some of their money in the fund to manage (minimum cut: EUR 100k with a EUR 10mm basic target, ideally EUR 20/30mm) before October
=> startup Equity fundraising
open the equity fundraising for the startup between July and September (to pay for and launch a regulated investment vehicle in Luxembourg, and start hiring/paying basic team salaries, probably EUR 500k TBC)
If you are curious or if you happen to know anyone who's curious enough to give us time for a chat and hear the full story, please shout.
Thanks for reading so far and for your ongoing support. We'll keep sharing updates via the newsletter to keep you posted on developments.
